Prof. Jiang InsightsIndependent analysis

Scorecard · Updated Oct 18, 2026

Professor Jiang's Predictions: A Strict Scorecard

Every prediction by Professor Jiang Xueqin that we have checked against his own words. Each entry has the exact quote, a timestamped source, and a resolution test written before the outcome. This is a curated list, not a database of everything he has said; it grows with each analysis we publish.

Score so far

Strict accuracy

69%

11 hits of 16 scored · 95% range 44–86%

Hit

11

Miss

5

Partial

0

Pending

13

How the % is calculated: hits ÷ (hits + misses + partials). Partials count as not a hit (with half credit for partials it would be 69%). Pending calls are not scored yet, and 8 entries are excluded (void, no deadline, consensus calls, or not a real prediction). With this few scored calls the range is wide, so treat the number as a rough guide. For the full audit of the fan trackers' 77% and 87% figures, read Is Professor Jiang really 77% accurate?

How we score

A hedge counts as the main call. If he says "I think X, maybe Y", we score X. One call is never split into a hit and a miss.

Reported events never count. Describing something after it happened is marked "Not a prediction" and left out of the score.

A failed condition makes it void. "If A, then B" is not scored when A never happens.

The test comes first. Each resolution test is written down before the deadline, and a dated call is scored on its date.

Safe calls are listed, not scored. When a call came true but was the expected or already-announced outcome, it shows little forecasting skill, so we leave it out of the percentage. This is our judgment call; the entries stay visible so you can disagree.

Hit
Happened as stated, within his timeframe.
Miss
Deadline passed, or the opposite happened.
Partial
Right direction, wrong scale or timing. Counts as not a hit in the strict score.
Pending
Deadline not reached yet.
Void
A conditional call whose condition never happened. Not scored.
No deadline
No date and no event that settles it. Cannot be scored until one exists.
Not a prediction
Described after it happened. Fan trackers sometimes count these as hits; we do not.
Consensus call
Came true, but it was the expected or already-announced outcome. Listed, not scored.

All checked predictions

Status
Topic

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Questions about Jiang's track record

How accurate is Professor Jiang?

On the calls listed here, the strict score is shown above. Fan trackers quote 77% or 87%; the gap comes from their rules (partial hits counted as wins, events described after the fact counted as forecasts), not from different data. Our accuracy audit walks through every step.

Why isn't every prediction listed?

We only add a claim once we have checked it against the transcript and written a resolution test. Trackers that list hundreds of claims use automated extraction, which is useful as a map but often turns lecture asides into "predictions".

When does this page change?

Whenever a deadline passes or a new analysis adds claims. The next big batch is the November 3, 2026 US midterms.